Recent Research
Click a paper’s title for a plain-English summary of what we found and why it matters, along with links to the published article and an ungated PDF. A complete list of publications is in my CV.
Takings for Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis of Eminent Domain Exercises in New York City
Across nearly three decades of property takings in New York City, we find little evidence that eminent domain boosts nearby jobs, businesses, or property values, and where effects show up they are more often negative than positive.
Net Productive Entrepreneurship: State and MSA-Level Indices, 2002–2019
New yearly measures of productive and unproductive entrepreneurship for every state and 381 metro areas show that net productive entrepreneurship has declined since 2002, mostly in large metros.
The Political Economy of State Economic Development: A Path to Unproductive Entrepreneurship
After a state hands out its first extraordinarily large business incentive, jobs at existing lobbying firms grow by 3.6%, with the biggest gains in the state capital.
Baumol’s migrants: Productive and unproductive entrepreneurship and between-MSA migration
Americans move toward metro areas where entrepreneurs innovate and away from those where entrepreneurs chase political favors.
Institutions Matter: Economic freedom and income mobility
Children who grow up in U.S. metro areas with more economic freedom are more likely to climb the income ladder, with 5 to 12% more upward mobility than children in the least-free areas.
Evaluation of Kelo’s Political and Economic Impact: Theory and Evidence
After the Supreme Court’s Kelo decision, New York City cut its economic-development takings by about 90% without any new law forcing it to, and the takings it did carry out produced no measurable gains in local jobs or businesses.
Short-Term Rental Bans and the Hotel Industry: Evidence from New York City
New York City’s de facto ban on short-term rentals raised hotel room rates by $14 to $19 a night and added roughly $2.1 to $2.9 billion in hotel revenue over its first eighteen months.
Employment Effects of Minimum Wage Indexing: Establishment Evidence from Oregon Restaurants
After Oregon tied its minimum wage to inflation in 2003, employment at its restaurants fell about 3.6% relative to similar restaurants in states where the minimum wage stayed put.
Relationship Lobbying through Repeated Contributions: A Humanomics Approach
When state term limits pushed long-serving legislators out and shifted power toward governors, the share of campaign money that statewide executive candidates got from repeat donors rose by about a third, a sign that political influence is built through lasting relationships.
Cashing in on Culture: Local Employment Effects from Art and Cultural District Designation
State-designated cultural districts give a modest but lasting boost to jobs at arts and cultural businesses inside their borders, but the gains do not spread to restaurants, shops, or hotels.
Labor Market Reform as an External Enabler of High-Growth Entrepreneurship: A Multi-Level Institutional Contingency Perspective
When states made noncompete agreements harder to enforce, fast-growing businesses became 27 to 32% more common in their cities, unless heavy federal regulation in the industry cancelled out the gain.
The Political Economy of State Economic Development Incentives: A Case of Rent Extraction
Once a state starts handing out ‘megadeal’ business incentives, campaign money flows in and incumbent legislators win by wider margins, which helps explain why these ineffective programs persist.
Regional Innovation Networks & High-Growth Entrepreneurship
Metro areas where inventors collaborate more closely produce more fast-growing young companies, especially where entrepreneurship is already common.
Does State Tax Reciprocity Affect Interstate Commuting? Evidence from a Natural Experiment
When Minnesota and Wisconsin ended their income tax reciprocity agreement, the number of Wisconsin residents commuting to jobs in Minnesota fell by 3 to 5%.
Willingness to Pay for Policies to Reduce Health Risks from COVID-19: Evidence from U.S. Professional Sports
Sports fans placed real dollar value on COVID-19 safety rules at games, but they split sharply: most would pay more for mask requirements, while a smaller group of avid fans would pay less.
Government Contracting, Labor Intensity, and the Local Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from the Budget Control Act of 2011
When federal contract spending falls, local economies lose jobs faster than they gain them when spending rises — and cuts to labor-intensive industries hit hardest.
Did Video Gaming Expansion Boost Municipal Revenues in Illinois?
Letting video gambling machines into local bars and restaurants did not raise total city revenues in Illinois; it pulled spending away from other local businesses instead.
Do Cultural Districts Spur Urban Revitalization: Evidence from Louisiana
Homes inside Louisiana’s state-certified cultural districts sell for about 7% more after certification than similar homes just outside the district lines.
Campaigning for Retirement: State Teacher Union Campaign Contributions and Pension Generosity
Teachers’ unions that give more to state political campaigns win richer pensions and shift more of the cost to taxpayers, a return of nearly 1,500% on their contributions.
Local Fiscal Adjustments from Depopulation: Evidence from the Post–Cold War Defense Contraction
When the end of the Cold War shrank military towns, local governments held overall budgets steady by raising property taxes, cutting school construction, and borrowing more.
The Distributional Effects of Job Loss from Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from the Budget Control Act of 2011
The 2011 federal spending caps cost far fewer jobs than predicted, and the losses fell mostly on men and college-educated workers rather than the less-educated workers who usually bear the brunt of downturns.
Patent Intensity and Concentration: The Effect of Institutional Quality on MSA Patent Activity
Metro areas with more economic freedom do not necessarily patent more, but their innovation is spread across many more inventors and technologies.